Yes, Big Data Did Triumph on Election Day

One computer forecasting system predicted Trump’s victory — the one with the least human input. Donald Trump’s win surprised many around the world, but none more than the modelers and big league prognosticators who were calling for a likely Clinton victory. That outcome doesn’t mean that data-driven forecasting died on Tuesday. In fact, the best performance went to an artificial intelligence able to crunch more data than its human rivals. The takeaway? Forecasters need new ways to talk about the uncertainty of their models and need to expand beyond “polling data.” The Defense Department and the intelligence community, who have also grown fond of machine aided prediction, would do well to heed that lesson. There’s an important and overlooked distinction between a prediction (which suggests certainty) and a forecast, which acknowledges…


Link to Full Article: Yes, Big Data Did Triumph on Election Day

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